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Ben Smith Wed May 7, 1:32 AM ET
Sen. Barack Obama took a large and potentially decisive step toward the Democratic nomination Tuesday night, making dramatic symbolic and numerical gains in North Carolina and Indiana.
Obama's emphatic North Carolina victory, and a narrow loss in Indiana, extended his lead in the count of delegates to the Democratic National Convention, and in most counts of the combined popular vote.
As important, they diminished Clinton's rationale for urging Democratic superdelegates to override his delegate lead and give the nomination to her.
Her case to party elders -- that Obama was a flawed, flagging candidate -- lost much of its altitude despite a nail-biting and narrow victory in Indiana. Her bread-and-butter pitch to voters fell prey to the doubts Obama's television campaign raised about her sincerity. What had been, in the best of scenarios an up hill climb, became far steeper.
"There were those who were saying that North Carolina could be a 'game-changer'for Mrs. Clinton," Obama jeered in his Raleigh victory speech. "But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, DC."
Obama then pivoted toward the general election, warning of coming Republican attacks and -- after tweaking Clinton's high hopes in North Carolina -- addressing her only with gracious language.
He made no suggestion that she should leave the race, and even congratulated her on her "apparent victory" in Indiana -- which remained very much in the balance as he spoke. Visually and rhetorically he began to reintroduce himself to the broad general election audience, stressing his patriotism and his American roots.
"I know the promise of America because I have lived it," he said, standing before a backdrop of middle-aged white women waving small American flags. He cited "the founding ideals that the flag draped over my grandfather's coffin stands for -- it is life, and liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."
Clinton, meanwhile, promised to forge ahead. In a muted tone, with her husband glum and sun-burned behind her, Clinton pledged to charge ahead "full speed."
"I'm going to work my heart out in West Virginia and Kentucky this month," she said. She cast her potential victory in Indiana -- citing her opponent's words -- as a "tiebreaker" after the two split victories in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
But Clinton also thanked her family, her staff and her supporters at unusually great length, giving the speech a somewhat valedictory tone. She promised to fight for a Democratic victory in November "no matter what happens."
Tim Russert of NBC News reported around midnight that Clinton had canceled her scheduled network morning appearances for Wednesday morning, contributing to the perception that her campaign was thrown back on its heels by the results.
Exit polls suggested that there were no dramatic reversals in the hardened demographic patterns that have determined the outcome of almost every Democratic primary since February. But the outbursts by Obama's former minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, didn't seem to damage his support from white voters.
"The fact that we have done as well as we have done tonight says something about the durability of his candidacy," said Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod.
The victory, in which he appears to have expanded his lead in pledged delegates by more than 10, also put Obama on course to take a clear majority of pledged delegates on May 20.
Obama's strong night also meant an unconventional gamble of his paid off. Clinton made the issue of the primaries her call for a gas tax holiday, and she portrayed Obama as out of touch for opposing it, on the stump and in a series of television ads.
Obama, flouting conventional wisdom, met her bread-and-butter appeal with a high-minded policy argument and a character attack, calling the plan a gimmick and jabbing at her Achilles' heel, voters' sense that she is untrustworthy.
Clinton hoped her argument would reveal Obama's abiding weakness with working class voters. "What's the matter with Barack Obama?" asked one of her television ads.
Instead, Obama appears to have used the issue to underline her weaknesses.
Clinton's own gamble, meanwhile, cratered. She spent unexpected days in North Carolina, where Bill Clinton made nine stops Monday, and many of her aides held out hope she could win there.
But Obama won by double-digits, picking up more than a third of the white vote in the state. On stage in Indianapolis, her husband's red, sun-soaked face was all he had to show for the days he'd spent there. oe Andrew, former DNC chairman under Bill Clinton, has endorsed Barack Obama:
When Senator Barack Obama ran through the arch and strode onto stage tonight in Washington Square Park, he paused and sized up the crowd standing before him, many of whom were waving blue signs into the air emblazoned with his last name.
“Look at this crowd!” Mr. Obama said. “It is good to be back in New York. Some of you know, I used to live in New York City. I used to hang out in Washington Square Park. I know a little something about Greenwich Village.”
He added: “I was going to say I know some of the bars around here, but I think my communications director was trying to cut that off.”
While there was no indication that Mr. Obama had been drinking tonight – he is, in fact, a light drinker, who two years ago declined a shot of vodka with a group of government officials in Russia – he did seem as though he had taken an energy boost from his appearance at a debate Wednesday evening in New Hampshire.
Throughout the course of a 41-minute speech, Mr. Obama essentially asked voters to take a leap of faith on his candidacy. “There are easier choices to make in this election,” he said.
Bathed in the glow of floodlights, Mr. Obama addressed thousands of people who stood shoulder-to-shoulder, stretching from one side of the park to the other.
“There are those in this race for the presidency who are touting their experience working the system, but the problem is that the system isn’t working for us,” Mr. Obama said. “There are those who are saying you should be looking for someone who can play the game better, but the problem is that the game has been rigged. The time is too serious the stakes are too high to play the same game over and over again.”
In February, Mr. Obama drew 20,000 people to the Town Lake in Austin, Texas. In March, 10,000 people crowded into a plaza outside City Hall in Oakland, Calif. In April, he attracted 20,000 at an outdoor rally at Yellow Jacket Park in Atlanta.
And tonight, he drew what the campaign said was 24,000 people to Washington Square Park. That number was impossible to verify – unlike the other locales, where police provided a crowd count – but the audience clearly was one of the largest of the year.
So why did Mr. Obama spent the evening in New York, rather than addressing a group of early-state voters in Des Moines or Manchester? The New York primary on Feb. 5 – one of 21 states scheduled to cast votes that day – could offer a delegate boost.
While New York’s Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is expected to carry the state, Democrats split their delegates proportionally. So if Mrs. Clinton wins New York by 65 percent, for example, she would get 65 percent of the delegates. In a drawn-out fight for the nomination, Mr. Obama believes he can pick up enough delegates in New York and other states to make a difference.
“We heart New York,” said Steve Hildebrand, a senior adviser to the Obama campaign, who oversees the strategy in the early states. “Delegates are proportioned by congressional district – not winner take all. We firmly believe we can come out of New York with a sizeable delegate piece for Barack.”
We’ll find out on Feb. 5.
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HARLEM'S BILL PERKINS BACKS OBAMA
Harlem State Sen. Bill Perkins tells our Celeste Katz in an exclusive interview that he's endorsing Barack Obama over hometown Sen. Hillary Clinton.
The former City Councilman who holds a seat in a district that includes Bill Clinton's office tells Katz, “I think that his message of hope and opportunity is the right message."
Perkins, who is black, says he’s not choosing Obama on the basis of race –- just as he did not feel obliged to back Clinton just because she represents New York.
But his of choice is the first major New York politician to break ranks with the Clintons -- and could give a green light to other pols who've waiting for someone else to make the first move, Katz reports.
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